In developing my model I have come up with a list of questions. The answers to these questions will either be helpful in developing the model or in validating the model. Some of the questions are simple and others I anticipate being more trouble to answer. Luckily, for getting a start, I do not need all of these questions answered and a good guess will be good enough at first.
QUESTIONS:
-----------------
1) How do terns pick nest scrapes?
?-> How do other sea-birds pick nest scrapes?
2) Do Terns ever switch nest scrapes?
Y-> At what point in the breeding season and under what conditions?
3) Is there any research suggesting something environmental that affects number of eggs laid by a Tern couple?
4) How many eggs are laid by tern couples? (0-3?)
->What is the distribution of this number? How many 0s vs. 1s vs. 2s vs. 3s?
5) How many eggs hatch per tern couple?
-> Alternatively, what percentage of eggs hatch?
6) What is the ratio of male to female adult terns? What is the ratio of male to female chick terns?
7) Is a male/female adult tern more likely to feed the chicks?
?-> How about other seabirds?
8) What affects gulls aggressiveness towards terns?
-> Bad fish year? Number of terns? Physical size (dimensions) of colony? Number of gulls?
9) In a good fish year, how frequently do terns feed their young?
10) How often (if ever) do both parent terns leave the nest scrape unattended?
11) In a bad year for the terns (2010, East Sand I.), how likely is a gull attempt at grabbing a chick to be successful? In a good year for the terns?
12) What is the probability that a chick that is dropped away from its nest scrape or wanders too far survives?
13) On average, how many drops before successful left-headed feed? Right-headed?
14) What is the probability of a failed feeding from the left? Right?
15) What is the ratio of fish that have heads to the left of adult tern beak vs. the right on the way onto the colony? (1:1)
16) How many times will unsuccessful tern parents try again in a season?
-> How late in the season will they retry?
